Three quarters, 31 basis points of drift: slow erosion of dollar reserves, not a flight. Total allocated reserves rose from $12.94T to $13.14T over the same period.
Tres trimestres, 31 puntos básicos de deriva: erosión lenta de reservas en dólares, no una fuga. Las reservas asignadas totales subieron de $12,94 a $13,14 billones en el mismo periodo.
Los mercados emergentes enfrentan un muro récord de refinanciación de $9 billones en 2026. La deuda global llegó a $348 billones tras sumar $29 billones en 2025; la demanda inversora se ha mantenido.
The dollar is weakening, not scarce. Reserves, invoicing, and offshore credit show steady dominance while the real stress hides in US repo plumbing, where RRP is empty, SRF hit records, and the Fed quietly restarted Treasury buying.
Key findings
Foreign-currency dollar credit to non-US borrowers reached $13.7T in Q1 2025 (+5% YoY); euro and yen offshore credit grew faster at +10% and +6%, signaling diversification rather than dollar collapse. Bank for International Settlements
The dollar's share of allocated FX reserves was 56.77% in Q4 2025, essentially unchanged from 57.08% in Q2 2025; total reserves rose to $13.14T — a slow erosion, not a flight. International Monetary Fund (IMF Data Brief)
The US dollar invoiced ~40% of global exports through 2023 — broadly stable since the 2010s; the renminbi share remains under 2%, meaning trade still routes through dollar plumbing even as DXY weakens. European Central Bank
DXY fell from 108.37 in January 2025 to 96.88 in June 2025 (-10.6%) before stabilizing near 97–99 through Q1 2026 — the worst dollar year in over a decade, the opposite tell of an acute global shortage. Statista (ICE DXY series)
EM equities rallied 22% YTD by late August 2025 with MSCI EM beating the S&P 500 by 12 points; ~12 percentage points of Latin America's 33% USD return came from FX appreciation against a softer dollar. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Emerging markets face record refinancing needs of over $9T in 2026 — the highest in the IIF series — though strong investor demand and a softer USD have so far kept Eurobond issuance and carry trades supportive. Institute of International Finance (IIF Global Debt Monitor)
The Fed ended QT on December 1, 2025 and began Reserve Management Purchases of ~$40B/month of Treasury bills from December 12, 2025 — a quiet but explicit liquidity backstop. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The ON RRP buffer collapsed from a peak around $904B in January 2024 to roughly $2.5B by June 2026, removing the cushion that previously insulated reserves from heavy Treasury issuance. Federal Reserve Bank of New York / FRED
OFR's first transaction-based estimate puts US repo at ~$12.6T daily in Q3 2025 — non-centrally cleared bilateral repo ($5.0T) is now the largest, opaque segment where stress can hide. Office of Financial Research (US Treasury)
Fed dollar swap lines peaked at $585B during the 2008 GFC and $450B in March 2020; through 2025 they remained near zero despite repo stress, suggesting today's pressure is domestic plumbing, not global dollar panic. Federal Reserve Board (FEDS Notes)
The argument
DXY fell 10.6% from January to June 2025, the worst dollar year in over a decade, the opposite of an acute global shortage.
The dollar held 56.77% of allocated FX reserves in Q4 2025 and invoiced ~40% of global exports, with the renminbi still under 2%.
Offshore dollar credit hit $13.7T (+5% YoY) but euro (+10%) and yen (+6%) grew faster, signaling diversification rather than flight.
The ON RRP cushion collapsed from $904B in January 2024 to $2.5B by June 2026, leaving reserves directly exposed to Treasury issuance.
Mid-September 2025 SOFR jumped to 4.42% and the Standing Repo Facility hit a record $50.35B draw on October 31, 2025.
The Fed ended QT on December 1, 2025 and restarted $40B/month of T-bill purchases as a quiet liquidity backstop.
Fed dollar swap lines, which peaked at $585B in 2008 and $450B in 2020, stayed near zero through 2025: the stress is domestic plumbing.
A soft dollar lifted MSCI EM 22% YTD by late August 2025, but EM faces a record $9T refinancing wall in 2026.
This research is published in English and Spanish. Ver en español
La investigación detrás de esta presentación
El dólar se debilita, no escasea. Reservas, facturación y crédito offshore mantienen su dominio; el estrés real se esconde en la fontanería del repo en EE.UU., con ON RRP vacío, récords en la SRF y la Fed comprando Treasuries otra vez.
Hallazgos clave
El crédito en moneda extranjera en dólares a prestatarios no estadounidenses alcanzó $13,7 billones en T1 2025 (+5% interanual); euro y yen crecieron más rápido (+10% y +6%), señal de diversificación, no de colapso del dólar. Bank for International Settlements
La cuota del dólar en reservas FX asignadas fue del 56,77% en T4 2025, casi sin cambios desde 57,08% en T2 2025; las reservas totales subieron a $13,14 billones: erosión lenta, no fuga. International Monetary Fund (IMF Data Brief)
El dólar facturó ~40% de las exportaciones globales hasta 2023, estable desde la década de 2010; la cuota del renminbi sigue por debajo del 2%, así que el comercio aún pasa por la 'plomería' del dólar pese a la debilidad del DXY. European Central Bank
El DXY cayó de 108,37 en enero de 2025 a 96,88 en junio de 2025 (-10,6%) y se estabilizó cerca de 97–99 hasta T1 2026: el peor año del dólar en más de una década, lo opuesto a una escasez global aguda. Statista (ICE DXY series)
Las acciones emergentes subieron 22% YTD hasta finales de agosto de 2025, superando al S&P 500 por 12 puntos; ~12 puntos del retorno en USD del 33% de Latinoamérica vino de la apreciación cambiaria frente a un dólar más débil. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Los mercados emergentes enfrentan necesidades récord de refinanciación superiores a $9 billones en 2026, el mayor nivel de la serie IIF; la fuerte demanda inversora y un USD más débil han mantenido activa la emisión de Eurobonos y el carry trade. Institute of International Finance (IIF Global Debt Monitor)
La Fed terminó el QT el 1 de diciembre de 2025 e inició compras de gestión de reservas (RMP) por ~$40.000M/mes en letras del Tesoro desde el 12 de diciembre de 2025: un respaldo de liquidez silencioso pero explícito. Federal Reserve Bank of New York
El colchón ON RRP cayó desde un pico de ~$904.000M en enero de 2024 a unos $2.500M en junio de 2026, eliminando el amortiguador que protegía las reservas frente a la fuerte emisión del Tesoro. Federal Reserve Bank of New York / FRED
La primera estimación basada en transacciones de la OFR sitúa el repo de EE.UU. en ~$12,6 billones diarios en T3 2025; el segmento bilateral no compensado centralmente ($5,0 billones) es el mayor y más opaco, donde el estrés puede ocultarse. Office of Financial Research (US Treasury)
A mediados de septiembre de 2025, SOFR subió a ~4,42% y la SRF se utilizó por ~$18.500M en un día; el 31 de octubre de 2025 alcanzó un récord de $50.350M, el mayor uso desde su creación. American Institute for Economic Research / The Daily Economy
Las líneas swap de dólares de la Fed alcanzaron $585.000M en la GFC de 2008 y $450.000M en marzo de 2020; durante 2025 se mantuvieron cerca de cero pese al estrés del repo, lo que indica fricción doméstica más que pánico global. Federal Reserve Board (FEDS Notes)
El argumento
DXY fell 10.6% from January to June 2025, the worst dollar year in over a decade, the opposite of an acute global shortage.
The dollar held 56.77% of allocated FX reserves in Q4 2025 and invoiced ~40% of global exports, with the renminbi still under 2%.
Offshore dollar credit hit $13.7T (+5% YoY) but euro (+10%) and yen (+6%) grew faster, signaling diversification rather than flight.
The ON RRP cushion collapsed from $904B in January 2024 to $2.5B by June 2026, leaving reserves directly exposed to Treasury issuance.
Mid-September 2025 SOFR jumped to 4.42% and the Standing Repo Facility hit a record $50.35B draw on October 31, 2025.
The Fed ended QT on December 1, 2025 and restarted $40B/month of T-bill purchases as a quiet liquidity backstop.
Fed dollar swap lines, which peaked at $585B in 2008 and $450B in 2020, stayed near zero through 2025: the stress is domestic plumbing.
A soft dollar lifted MSCI EM 22% YTD by late August 2025, but EM faces a record $9T refinancing wall in 2026.
Esta investigación se publica en inglés y español. Read in English
