A pandemic spike that refused to come down: roughly one in four paid days is now done from home. Bloom and colleagues' SWAA shows the new floor is four times the pre-COVID rate, not a temporary bump.
Un salto pandémico que no retrocedió: cerca de uno de cada cuatro días pagados se hace desde casa. La SWAA de Bloom y colegas muestra un nuevo piso cuatro veces mayor al previo a COVID, no un repunte temporal.
EU workers did not return to the office, they moved to hybrid: fully remote nearly halved while hybrid climbed to 44%. Among teleworkable jobs the two curves crossed: pure remote shrank, but flexibility itself kept expanding.
Los europeos no volvieron a la oficina, pasaron al híbrido: el remoto total casi se redujo a la mitad mientras el híbrido subió al 44%. Entre empleos teletrabajables las curvas se cruzaron: el remoto puro se redujo, pero la flexibilidad siguió creciendo.
English-speaking economies work from home four times more than South Korea, with Canada leading the world. Culture, not technology, sets the ceiling: teleworkable shares are similar across rich countries but actual WFH days are not.
Las economías anglófonas teletrabajan cuatro veces más que Corea del Sur, con Canadá a la cabeza. La cultura, no la tecnología, fija el techo: las cuotas teletrabajables son similares, pero los días reales no.
Five-day mandates went from rare to majority while two-thirds of employers now track who shows up. Earlier-year values are 2021 (Fortune 100), 2024 (enforcement) and 2025 (tracking); each pair shows the size of the swing.
Los mandatos de cinco días pasaron de raros a mayoritarios y dos tercios de los empleadores ya rastrean quién asiste. Los años previos son 2021 (Fortune 100), 2024 (aplicación) y 2025 (rastreo); cada par muestra el tamaño del cambio.
Even after years of pressure, badge-ins plateau near 61%: a 39-point hole below 2019. The recovery slope is real but asymptotic, the office is structurally smaller than it was.
Tras años de presión, las entradas con credencial se estancan cerca del 61%: 39 puntos por debajo de 2019. La recuperación es real pero asintótica: la oficina es estructuralmente más pequeña que antes.
US tenants gave back 77.5 million sq ft of offices in 2023, about 15 Empire State Buildings. Net absorption that deep had never been recorded outside a recession.
Los inquilinos en EE.UU. devolvieron 77,5 millones de pies cuadrados en 2023, unos 15 edificios Empire State. Una absorción neta tan profunda nunca se había registrado fuera de una recesión.
More than 1 in 5 offices sit empty and the pipeline has fallen 87%: no new supply is coming to absorb the pain. The market cannot grow its way out, it has to shrink, convert, or write down.
Más de 1 de cada 5 oficinas está vacía y la cartera cayó 87%: no llegará oferta nueva que absorba el golpe. El mercado no puede crecer para salir: tendrá que encoger, convertir o castigar valor.
Before COVID 4 in 5 studies found WFH lifted productivity; once forced, nearly 4 in 10 turned negative. Selection matters: who chooses to work from home is part of why it worked.
Antes del COVID 4 de cada 5 estudios hallaron mejoras; cuando se volvió obligatorio, casi 4 de cada 10 viraron a negativo. La selección importa: quién elige trabajar desde casa explica parte del éxito.
Hybrid coders shipped 8% more, but fully remote call-center agents took 12% fewer calls per hour. The verdict depends on the task: knowledge work that batches well thrives on hybrid; service work that demands real-time flow does not.
Los programadores híbridos entregaron 8% más, pero los agentes totalmente remotos atendieron 12% menos llamadas por hora. El veredicto depende de la tarea: el trabajo de conocimiento agrupable florece en híbrido; los servicios en tiempo real, no.
Video-call pairs generated fewer creative ideas than in-person pairs across all five tasks tested. A complementary 4-million-paper study finds fully remote research teams produce less breakthrough work even at equal output.
Las parejas por videollamada generaron menos ideas creativas que las presenciales en las cinco tareas evaluadas. Un estudio complementario de 4 millones de artículos halla que los equipos totalmente remotos producen menos avances disruptivos.
About $60,000 a year off a $239,000 salary: the price tag tech workers put on never commuting again. Cullen et al. measured this with real Levels.fyi job offers, not survey hypotheticals.
Unos $60.000 al año sobre un sueldo de $239.000: el precio que los tech ponen a no volver a la oficina. Cullen et al. lo midieron con ofertas reales de Levels.fyi, no con encuestas hipotéticas.
Out-migrants took $10.6B in income; arrivals brought only $3.8B, a $6.9B net hole in one year. Departing residents earned 67% more than the year before's leavers ($138K vs $82K): the wealthy chose to leave.
Quienes se fueron llevaron $10.600M; quienes llegaron aportaron solo $3.800M: un agujero neto de $6.900M en un año. Quienes se fueron ganaban 67% más que los del año anterior ($138.000 vs $82.000): los ricos eligieron irse.
Three Sun Belt metros absorbed over 216,000 net residents while large US cities grew 33% slower than in 2019. The map of US opportunity tilted south and southwest as remote work cut the tie between salary and address.
Tres metros del Sun Belt sumaron más de 216.000 residentes netos mientras las ciudades grandes crecieron 33% menos que en 2019. El mapa de oportunidad estadounidense se inclinó hacia el sur al cortarse el vínculo entre salario y dirección.
From category-defining hypergrowth to flatline in three years: Zoom became a utility, not a stock story. Absolute revenue still grew from $331M (2019) to $4.87B (2026), but the curve is now nearly horizontal.
De hipercrecimiento a línea plana en tres años: Zoom se volvió un servicio, no una historia de bolsa. Los ingresos absolutos pasaron de $331M (2019) a $4.870M (2026), pero la curva es casi horizontal.
Collaboration platforms outran videoconferencing: hybrid favors workflow tools over meeting tools. The remote-work software bucket split: meetings commoditized, while coordination and project work kept paying.
Las plataformas de colaboración superaron a la videoconferencia: el híbrido premia herramientas de flujo, no de reuniones. El software de trabajo remoto se dividió: las reuniones se comoditizaron y la coordinación siguió pagando.
Remote work paid a wage premium to white-collar earners and a penalty to blue-collar ones. By Q1 2024 about 35.5 million Americans (22.9% of workers) teleworked, concentrated in higher-wage knowledge roles.
El trabajo remoto premió a los empleos de cuello blanco y castigó a los de cuello azul. En Q1 2024 unos 35,5 millones de estadounidenses (22,9%) teletrabajaban, concentrados en empleos de conocimiento bien pagados.
The research behind this deck
Hybrid work locked in at roughly one in four paid days, hollowed out US office towers, redistributed billions in income across cities and platforms, and split the productivity verdict by job type.
Key findings
Kastle Systems' 10-city office occupancy index climbed from pandemic lows to 56.3% in December 2025 and reached roughly 61% by June 2026, its highest readings since 2020. Kastle Systems
By Q4 2025, JLL measured a 22.2% total vacancy rate and 20.1% direct vacancy across the entire U.S. office market, with 4.8 billion square feet of existing inventory. JLL
The share of Fortune 100 companies requiring five days in the office jumped from just 5% in 2021 to 55% by 2026, a tenfold rise in under five years. JLL
Active attendance enforcement by companies more than doubled in just two years, rising from 17% of all companies in 2024 to 37% in 2026. Flex Index
U.S. office tenants gave back 77.5 million square feet of space in 2023 alone, the equivalent of roughly 15 Empire State Buildings walking out the door in a single year. Cushman & Wakefield
By 2026, nearly 7 in 10 employers track office attendance with data tools, up from fewer than half the year before, showing that RTO is now actively measured, not just announced. CBRE
New U.S. office construction under way fell 87% from its Q2 2020 peak to just 15.8 million sq ft by Q1 2026, meaning almost no new supply is coming to rescue struggling landlords. CBRE
Austin, Dallas, and Miami were the top domestic in-migration metros in the US from 2020 to 2023, gaining roughly 95,000, 69,000, and 53,000 net residents respectively. Austin Chamber of Commerce
In Q1 2024, about 22.9% of employed Americans teleworked — roughly 35.5 million people, concentrated in higher-wage knowledge jobs, not service roles. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
In a randomized trial of 1,612 tech employees, hybrid workers wrote 8% more lines of code than fully in-office peers, while performance ratings stayed equal. Nature
Zoom's annual revenue grew more than 14 times over six years, from $331 million in 2019 to $4.87 billion in 2026, with most of the jump happening in 2021. Zoom Video Communications / MacroTrends
Call center workers at a Fortune 500 firm answered 12% fewer calls per hour when fully remote before COVID; even after offices closed, an 8% gap persisted. American Economic Association
The argument
Fully remote days quadrupled versus 2019 and stuck near 28% of paid workdays.
Fortune 100 five-day mandates jumped from 5% to 55% but hybrid kept rising in the EU.
US office vacancy hit 22.2% with 77.5M sq ft handed back in 2023 alone.
New office construction collapsed 87% from its 2020 peak, leaving no relief in sight.
